Prediction markets are markets specifically designed to reveal information. They share many features with traditional gambling and financial markets, but the latter are primarily designed to provide entertainment or risk transfer. For the operators of these markets, whether bookmakers or exchanges, the discovery of information is merely an advantageous side effect.

The idea of using a prediction market to aid climate change-related information discovery was first suggested more than 25 years ago by the US economist Robin Hanson. Since then, other economists, scientists, and lawyers have elaborated on the idea, but no long-range prediction markets for climate have been established.

Long-range prediction markets could have a variety of uses for different stakeholder groups, including for financial institutions, regulators, policymakers, and researchers. The information could help improve assumptions used to underpin a wide range of decisions related to climate change and help inform scenarios and other forms of analysis. Prediction markets could also be created for other environmental outcomes, potentially from global biodiversity to local environmental pollution. Again, these could reveal information relevant to improving environmental outcomes and, of course, managing different environment-related risks.

The Symposium will bring together a small number of senior practitioners, policymakers, and researchers to explore the potential of prediction markets for climate change and for other environmental outcomes. We will also have the opportunity to test a new prediction market developed by Winton Group via a simulated market competition. The Symposium will take place at Winton’s headquarters in London and will be followed by a drinks reception.

To apply for a place at one of these sessions, please email events@smithschool.ox.ac.uk including details of your position and affiliation. Spaces are severely constrained and we cannot guarantee places.